Module 5: Fundamental Analysis and Tokenomics

Token Distribution: Who Owns What

Chapter 4 of 15 · about 5 minutes

4.1 The pie chart

Every new token's documentation seemed to include a colourful pie chart: "Community 40%," "Ecosystem 20%," "Team 18%," "Investors 17%," "Treasury 5%."

"These all look reasonable," said Mint. "How do I tell a good one from a bad one?"

"Look at who got tokens, what they paid, and when they can sell," said Hash. "And then check whether the labels mean what they say. 'Community' sometimes means something very different from what you'd expect."

4.2 Common allocation categories

CategoryWho receives itWhat to check
Team and foundersPeople building the projectSize, vesting length, and whether founders are identifiable
Early investorsVenture capital and angel investors who funded developmentPrice paid, size, vesting
Community and ecosystemUsers, airdrops, incentives, grants, partnershipsWho actually controls it and how it's distributed
Treasury or foundationReserves for future developmentWho controls spending and how transparent it is
Public saleBuyers in a public token salePrice and how much was sold
LiquidityTokens provided to exchanges and poolsWhether liquidity is locked or can be withdrawn

4.3 Insiders and outsiders

A useful way to read distribution is to split it into two groups.

Insiders received tokens before the public, usually at very low prices or for free: the team, early investors, advisors, and sometimes the foundation.

Outsiders acquire tokens through public markets, airdrops, or participation: users and later buyers.

Example tokenAllocationGroup
Team20%Insider
Investors25%Insider
Advisors3%Insider
Foundation treasury15%Controlled by insiders
Community incentives30%Outsider, over time
Airdrop7%Outsider

Here, team, investors, and advisors directly hold 48%, and the foundation, typically controlled by the team, holds another 15%. Insiders effectively control 63% of supply. Outsiders get 37%, much of it distributed gradually over years.

"So when I buy this token, most of the supply belongs to people who paid far less," said Mint.

"Often, yes," said Hash. "That isn't automatically wrong. Teams and investors took real risk and built something. But it means you should know their entry prices and when they can sell."

Chapter 4 · Who holds the supply

A stacked bar shows a token's supply split: a large share to team, investors, and insiders who paid cents, versus a smaller public float that paid far more. Even allocations labelled community can be controlled by insiders, so distribution reveals future selling pressure.

How a token is split matters as much as the product. A large insider allocation bought cheaply means later unlocks can flood the market, even when the label says 'community'. Always ask who holds the supply and at what price.

4.4 What insiders paid

Investors in early rounds often buy at a fraction of the eventual public price.

RoundPrice per tokenMultiple vs public price of $1.20
Seed round$0.0260x
Series A$0.0524x
Strategic round$0.158x
Public launch$1.201x

A seed investor who paid $0.02 is profitable even if the price falls 95% from launch. That doesn't mean they'll sell immediately. But it means they have far more flexibility than public buyers, and their selling decisions can weigh on the price for a long time, especially as their tokens unlock (Chapter 5).

Funding round prices aren't always public. When they are, they're very useful context. Fundraising databases and project announcements are good sources.

4.5 Concentration

As Module 1, Chapters 9 and 10 noted, concentrated ownership makes a token fragile. A single large holder can crash the price by selling or control governance votes.

You can check concentration on a block explorer's token holders page. But interpret it carefully.

Address typeIs it a real concentration risk?
Exchange walletsUsually holds many customers' tokens, so less concerning
Smart contracts, like staking or vesting contractsDepends: locked vesting tokens will unlock later
Bridge contractsHolds tokens for users on another chain
Team or foundation walletsYes, worth tracking
Unknown individual wallets holding large amountsYes, potentially

A token where the top 10 wallets hold 80% might be fine if most of those are exchanges and staking contracts. It might be dangerous if they're insider wallets. Labels on block explorers help, but many large wallets are unlabelled.

4.6 Airdrops

An airdrop distributes free tokens, usually to early users, as a way to decentralise ownership and reward participation. Airdrops can be a fair way to get tokens into the hands of real users.

But they also have known patterns:

Airdrop farming. Some people create hundreds or thousands of wallets to qualify for airdrops multiple times. These farmers often sell immediately, creating selling pressure at launch.

Low float at launch. Airdrops are sometimes small compared with insider allocations, so the public owns very little of the supply.

Immediate sell pressure. Recipients who got tokens for free have no cost basis and may sell right away.

4.7 Fair launches

Some tokens launch without any pre-allocation to a team or investors. Everyone acquires tokens the same way, for example through mining or open participation. Bitcoin is the best-known example: there was no pre-sale or team allocation, although Satoshi Nakamoto mined many early coins at a time when few others were participating.

Fair launches avoid insider advantages, but they're rare for projects that need funding to build complex products. Most projects with venture backing have insider allocations. Neither model is automatically better. The key is transparency.

4.8 Treasuries

A project's treasury holds funds for future development, grants, and operations, often in its own token plus stablecoins or ETH.

Questions worth asking:

  1. How large is the treasury, and what's it held in?
  2. Who can spend it: a multisig, a governance vote, or a single team member?
  3. How fast is it being spent? How many years can the project operate at current spending?
  4. Is spending reported transparently?

A treasury held mostly in the project's own token is vulnerable. If the token price falls, the treasury shrinks just when the project may need it most. And selling treasury tokens to fund operations adds selling pressure.

4.9 Try it yourself

Choose a token you're curious about. Find its allocation breakdown and classify each category as insider or outsider. Find any public information about early funding rounds and their prices. Then open the token's holders page on a block explorer and identify what the top 10 addresses are. How concentrated is ownership once you exclude exchanges and contracts?

Key takeaways from this chapter

  1. Token distribution shows who owns supply, what they paid, and when they can sell.
  2. Separate insiders (team, investors, advisors, foundation) from outsiders (users and public buyers).
  3. Early investors often paid a small fraction of public prices, giving them flexibility to sell profitably.
  4. Check concentration on block explorers, distinguishing exchanges and contracts from insider wallets.
  5. Airdrops can decentralise ownership, but farming and free tokens often create selling pressure.
  6. Fair launches avoid insider allocations but are rare for venture-funded projects.
  7. Treasuries matter: check size, composition, control, spending rate, and transparency.